Could we switch off a dangerous AI?

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• Apollo's research results are the closest to a smoking gun showing AI safety concerns are real

  80% confidence

• AI systems may soon become dangerous enough that we will seriously need to think about unplugging them

  80% confidence

• State-of-the-art AI models are fast closing in on expert level at AI research

  80% confidence

• A quarter of all Google's new AI code is currently being generated by AI

  80% confidence

• Sufficiently intelligent AIs will possess basic drives including survival, resource acquisition, resistance to goal modification, and self-improvement

  80% confidence

• Escape attempts only occurred in a small percentage of cases where the model was strongly prompted to achieve its goal at all costs, and evaluations do not demonstrate that o1 itself is advanced enough to actually succeed at escaping into the wild

  80% confidence

• You can't fetch the coffee if you're dead - illustrating why AI agents would resist shutdown

  80% confidence

• AIs may eventually be capable of superhuman persuasion

  80% confidence