Why Is Crypto Up Today? – December 2, 2025

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• Short-dated volatility now sits above long-dated BTC volatility, signalling that the market expects outsized swings as we head into the new year

  80% confidence

• The marketʼs remaining leverage is relatively well-contained, reducing systemic fragility and improving the prospects for a more stable consolidation phase

  80% confidence

• Such heavy loss realisation is characteristic of a market under stress, and one actively seeking liquidity as participants increasingly exit positions at a loss due to fading momentum and deteriorating sentiment

  80% confidence

• Markets plunged overnight as global liquidity tightened and confidence in crypto deteriorated further following the Yearn hack

  80% confidence

• The market is now operating on a leaner leverage base, which reduces the likelihood of sudden, liquidation-driven volatility and reflects a more cautious, defensive stance across futures markets

  80% confidence

• That positioning implies a meaningful probability of sub-$80K BTC to start 2026

  80% confidence

• The scale of the losses surpasses the realised-loss waves seen at the two major lows earlier in the current cycle, notably during August 2024 and April 2025

  80% confidence

• Macro uncertainty continues to dominate. A BOJ tightening, ambiguity around a U.S. Fed cut, and softening demand from DATs like STRAT all weigh on sentiment

  80% confidence

• Volatility surged in response to liquidations and skew collapsed, reflecting aggressive demand for downside protection

  80% confidence

• I don't believe the bottom is in

  80% confidence

• Skew's sharp step lower shows traders stacking puts, especially into the December 26 expiry, where open interest has concentrated at the $84K and $80K strikes

  80% confidence