U.S. Defense Manufacturers Face A Rare Earth Supply Squeeze - OilPrice.com Market Commentary

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• Pentagon will prohibit the use of rare earth magnet materials originating from China in U.S. military platforms beginning in 2027

  80% confidence

• SRC and REAlloys targeting roughly 400 tonnes of rare earth metal output annually by end of 2027, rising toward 600 tonnes as Phase 1 scales

  80% confidence

• Rare earth sourcing restrictions require traceability down to mining level across multi-tier supplier networks

  80% confidence

• REalloys has already solved the hardest part proving rare earth metallization can be done domestically to customer specifications

  80% confidence

• Replicating rare earth metallization capability typically takes three to seven years or more with meaningful technical and qualification risk

  80% confidence

• NORI-D project estimated to contain enough metals to meet requirements of 280 million electric vehicles

  80% confidence

• Metallization is the least developed part of the value chain outside China and requires deep accumulated operating expertise

  80% confidence