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Source document· January 30, 2026

SpaceX’s IPO could open the floodgates — and secondaries are booming in the meantime

View original at finance.yahoo.com
“SpaceX also just did a tender at an $800 billion valuation, and we see a ton of interest on our platform at Rainmaker in continuing to buy into the secondary.”
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  • More market cap is now housed in the private markets

    80% confidence

  • OpenAI and Anthropic are now over a trillion dollars of combined market cap, though three or four years ago they were valued much lower

    80% confidence

  • SpaceX could create a reset in the IPO market if it were to go public this year

    80% confidence

  • Last year was Rainmaker's biggest year, trading over $1 billion worth of secondaries

    80% confidence

  • Lining up banks is a pretty big signal that SpaceX is serious about IPO, not just playing games

    80% confidence

  • SpaceX is already pricing well above where the last tender round was and getting closer to that trillion and a half that they had discussed as a potential IPO price

    80% confidence

  • SpaceX has a business that is largely profitable and has dominance in their two key businesses

    80% confidence

  • Elon Musk famously said he wouldn't take SpaceX public until rockets were flying to Mars regularly

    80% confidence

  • If anyone can build data centers in space cooled by space and run by solar panels directly from the sun, Elon's probably the guy

    80% confidence

  • Jeff Bezos is going to launch a communication network to compete with Starlink

    80% confidence

  • SpaceX IPO will likely be a sliver deal, only 5% of their company that's technically available

    80% confidence

  • SpaceX will get a premium multiple well above what typical market rates would be, given the Elon halo effect

    80% confidence

  • The news that SpaceX may be considering various transactions with xAI and Tesla has caused a temporary pause in the market for SpaceX shares

    80% confidence

  • Private companies are staying private much longer now, with many companies that would be top 30 in the S&P 500 historically going public years earlier

    80% confidence

  • Companies should open up private secondary capability as a great way to develop price discovery well in advance of the IPO

    80% confidence
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Ce que nous observons
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Early-to-mid November 2026 is a dense run of clinical readouts and Q3 earnings at AHA, AASLD, ACR and ASH. Mid-cap biotechs (Vir, Mineralys, Arrowhead, Oryzon, Novartis, J&J) are reporting data that feeds into regulatory decisions. The next ones are the ivonescimab BLA (Nov 14) and the lorundrostat PDUFA (Dec 22), followed by ECLIPSE 2/3 and Maritime-1 readouts in Q1 2027. The list also includes an unrelated delisting track (EGM Nov 19, application Jan 25, 2027), and the facts have no AI or fintech content.
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Là où les sources divergent
Ford Motor Company
Both facts give cash for Ford Motor Company at the same point in time (2025-12-31; FY 2025 year-end and Q4 2025 year-end are the same date). Both are labelled USD, but the values are 23,356,000,000 and 23.356, which cannot both be true in USD. The two numbers agree once the second is read as billions (23.356 bn = 23,356,000,000), so the economic content is consistent and the conflict is a unit/scale error in the Q4 2025 record. The period is not the reason for the conflict: a Q4 and an FY figure at the same year-end date should match.
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SpaceX’s IPO could open the floodgates — and secondaries are booming in the meantime: Source | Via News | fr.via.news