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Source document· January 30, 2026

SpaceX’s IPO could open the floodgates — and secondaries are booming in the meantime

View original at finance.yahoo.com
SpaceX’s IPO could open the floodgates — and secondaries are booming in the meantime SpaceX's Starship rocket 38 launches during the 11th test flight on October 13, 2025 as seen from South Padre Island in Texas…
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  • SpaceX could create a reset in the IPO market if it were to go public this year

    80% confidence

  • Last year was Rainmaker's biggest year, trading over $1 billion worth of secondaries

    80% confidence

  • SpaceX is already pricing well above where the last tender round was and getting closer to that trillion and a half that they had discussed as a potential IPO price

    80% confidence

  • SpaceX has a business that is largely profitable and has dominance in their two key businesses

    80% confidence

  • Elon Musk famously said he wouldn't take SpaceX public until rockets were flying to Mars regularly

    80% confidence

  • If anyone can build data centers in space cooled by space and run by solar panels directly from the sun, Elon's probably the guy

    80% confidence

  • More market cap is now housed in the private markets

    80% confidence

  • OpenAI and Anthropic are now over a trillion dollars of combined market cap, though three or four years ago they were valued much lower

    80% confidence

  • Lining up banks is a pretty big signal that SpaceX is serious about IPO, not just playing games

    80% confidence

  • The news that SpaceX may be considering various transactions with xAI and Tesla has caused a temporary pause in the market for SpaceX shares

    80% confidence

  • Private companies are staying private much longer now, with many companies that would be top 30 in the S&P 500 historically going public years earlier

    80% confidence

  • Companies should open up private secondary capability as a great way to develop price discovery well in advance of the IPO

    80% confidence

  • Jeff Bezos is going to launch a communication network to compete with Starlink

    80% confidence

  • SpaceX IPO will likely be a sliver deal, only 5% of their company that's technically available

    80% confidence

  • SpaceX will get a premium multiple well above what typical market rates would be, given the Elon halo effect

    80% confidence
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Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC
Two significantly different EPS values (10.21 vs 2.68 USD_per_share) are reported for Morgan Stanley on the same observation date (2025-12-31). Fact A specifies FY 2025, while Fact B's 'N/A' fiscal period is ambiguous. If both represent FY 2025 annual EPS, these values directly conflict. The magnitude of the difference (3.8x) is too large to attribute to rounding or minor calculation variations. The missing fiscal period in Fact B raises data quality concerns, but same-date observation + same attribute should reference the same period.
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