Stock market today: Dow drops 800 points as S&P 500, Nasdaq slide on Trump tariff fears, AI 'scare trade'

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• Assuming underlying inflation continues to signal we are close to 2% goal, key to setting policy will be view of labor market

  80% confidence

• WTI crude expected to fall to $56 in Q4, up from previous call of $48

  80% confidence

• Brent crude expected to decline to $60/barrel in Q4, up from previous estimate of $54

  80% confidence

• Private credit is attractive contributor to US retirees' portfolio given high returns, downside protection and monthly dividends

  80% confidence

• If strong January jobs reading is revised lower, would reinforce January rate cut and signal need for another cut in March

  80% confidence

• US will lift baseline tariff rate on imports to 15%, effective immediately

  80% confidence

• If February labor data consistent with stronger job creation and low unemployment, may be appropriate to hold policy rate at current levels

  80% confidence

• A deal is a deal

  80% confidence

• There is significant misinformation weighing on Blue Owl and private credit industry, creating attractive buying opportunity

  80% confidence

• Gatekeepers and majority of financial advisors are sticking to facts including +12% 3Y annualized returns

  80% confidence

• Hedge funds sold global stocks in week ended Feb. 19 at fastest pace since April 2025

  80% confidence

• MORE strategy delivered higher sales and profits, with strong results flowing through to increased franchisee profits

  80% confidence

• Blue Owl's investment history is solid to strong across all strategies and credit quality remains above average

  80% confidence

• Potential 1M barrel/day Iran supply disruption for 12 months would boost fair value of oil by $8

  80% confidence

• All major regions were net sold, led by North America and Europe, with 58% single stocks and 42% macro products

  80% confidence

• Rates two possible outcomes as close to a coin flip

  80% confidence

• Brent rallied $11 YTD to $71 as Iran-related supply concerns drove positioning recovery while OECD inventories haven't built as expected

  80% confidence

• Current conditions remind them of similar sell-offs that led to 80%-190% total returns within 12 months

  80% confidence

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