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Source document· April 19, 2026
Next Catalyst for Treasury Bonds Is Named Kevin Warsh
View original at finance.yahoo.comNext Catalyst for Treasury Bonds Is Named Kevin Warsh (Bloomberg) -- Bond traders who’ve grown more optimistic about an end to the Iran conflict see their next catalyst coming from Capitol Hill, where Kevin Warsh will face questions as President Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Federal Reserve…
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The big move Friday was justified because the rates market was still pricing in higher energy prices amid an above target inflation backdrop which would constrain the Fed
60% confidenceIran will suspend nuclear program as Hormuz opens
60% confidenceNew Iran talks to seek end of Hormuz standoff
60% confidenceA key question for markets is how heavily Warsh will advocate rate cuts
60% confidenceIf oil prices continue to fall, the market can start pricing in gradual Fed rate cuts
60% confidenceKevin Warsh voiced support for lower interest rates before gaining Trump's nomination
60% confidence
Data points we hold from this source
| Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · interest rate ceiling | 3.75 percent |