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Source document· May 24, 2026

Social Security's 2027 COLA Could Be the Biggest Since 2023

View original at nasdaq.com
Social Security's 2027 COLA Could Be the Biggest Since 2023 Key Points Recent developments have pushed expectations for the 2027 COLA significantly higher…
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  • Business leaders expect inflation to average 3.7% over the next 12 months, based on the Cleveland Fed's quarterly executive survey

    60% confidence
  • The 2027 COLA could be the highest since the 8.7% adjustment in 2023 and would rank as the third-largest COLA since 2009

    60% confidence
  • CPI-U is forecast to climb 4.2% year over year

    60% confidence
  • The 2027 Social Security COLA is now expected to come in at 3.9%, up from a prior forecast of 2.8%

    60% confidence
  • Prices for shelter, medical services, and food all increased about 3.2% year over year, exceeding the 2.8% COLA most beneficiaries received

    60% confidence
  • 62% of retirees say Social Security is a major source of revenue, the highest level recorded in the poll's 25-year history

    60% confidence
  • The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the higher oil prices will climb, with a knock-on effect on overall inflation rates

    60% confidence
  • The CPI-W rose 3.9% year over year in April, driven by the ongoing war in Iran pushing oil prices higher

    60% confidence
  • The 2027 Social Security COLA is now projected at 4.2%, up from prior expectations of 3.2%

    60% confidence

Data points we hold from this source

Social Security Administration · market share62 percent_retirees_citing_as_major_income_source
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Early-to-mid November 2026 is a dense run of clinical readouts and Q3 earnings at AHA, AASLD, ACR and ASH. Mid-cap biotechs (Vir, Mineralys, Arrowhead, Oryzon, Novartis, J&J) are reporting data that feeds into regulatory decisions. The next ones are the ivonescimab BLA (Nov 14) and the lorundrostat PDUFA (Dec 22), followed by ECLIPSE 2/3 and Maritime-1 readouts in Q1 2027. The list also includes an unrelated delisting track (EGM Nov 19, application Jan 25, 2027), and the facts have no AI or fintech content.
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Là où les sources divergent
Ford Motor Company
Both facts give cash for Ford Motor Company at the same point in time (2025-12-31; FY 2025 year-end and Q4 2025 year-end are the same date). Both are labelled USD, but the values are 23,356,000,000 and 23.356, which cannot both be true in USD. The two numbers agree once the second is read as billions (23.356 bn = 23,356,000,000), so the economic content is consistent and the conflict is a unit/scale error in the Q4 2025 record. The period is not the reason for the conflict: a Q4 and an FY figure at the same year-end date should match.
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