History Suggests the Market Could Crash in 2026: Here's How You Can Protect Your Portfolio Right Now

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• The S&P 500 currently trades at a CAPE ratio of 41, significantly higher than its century-plus average of 17

  60% confidence

• Rising energy costs could lead to even steeper losses for AI consumer companies like OpenAI, potentially causing investors to stop funding the sector

  60% confidence

• Generative AI could eventually help companies save on labor costs throughout the economy, potentially increasing long-term profitability

  60% confidence

• The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology

  60% confidence

• Stock Advisor's total average return is 986%, a market-crushing outperformance compared to 208% for the S&P 500

  60% confidence

• If AI infrastructure consumers start running low on money, infrastructure providers could be left with slowing growth and expensive assets that are harder to monetize

  60% confidence

• Investors can cushion portfolios by rotating money away from AI stocks toward recession-resistant consumer defensive industries and keeping cash available for future deals

  60% confidence

• Micron Technology has a forward P/E ratio of just 7.1, despite net income surging 163% year over year to $13.8 billion in its most recent quarter

  60% confidence

• OpenAI could lose a total of $140 billion from 2024 through 2029

  60% confidence

• The Nasdaq Composite is up 96% over the last five years at a 14.4% CAGR, well exceeding its historical average of around 10%, mostly credited to soaring data center spending and AI optimism

  60% confidence

• There are only two other times in history when the S&P 500 CAPE ratio has been in the current range: 1929 (32.6) and the dot-com era (44.19 peak)

  60% confidence

Data points we hold from this source