Crude Oil Prices Fall on Hopes Peace Negotiations With Iran Will Materialize

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• The current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, which could hit a billion bbl by June

  60% confidence

• President Trump will send two envoys to Pakistan this weekend for talks with Iran

  60% confidence

• More than 80 energy facilities have been damaged during the conflict, and a recovery could take as long as two years

  60% confidence

• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is expected to arrive in Pakistan on Friday night for a possible second round of peace talks between the US and Iran

  60% confidence

• Crude output in the Persian Gulf has been curtailed by about 14.5 million bpd, or more than 50%, so far in April

  60% confidence

• Gasoline prices will stay above $3 until 2027

  60% confidence

• The US naval blockade in the strait will remain in full force until a deal is fully agreed

  60% confidence

• The territorial issue remains unresolved with Ukraine, and there's no hope of achieving a long-term settlement to the war until Russia's demand for territory in Ukraine is accepted

  60% confidence

• No talks are scheduled between US and Iranian officials

  60% confidence

• Crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +11% w/w to 115.89 million bbl in the week ended April 17

  60% confidence

• Russia is dragging out the war

  60% confidence

• About 13 million bpd of global oil supply has been shuttered by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz

  60% confidence

• A second round of US-Iran peace talks is expected

  60% confidence

• OPEC+ will boost its crude output by 206,000 bpd in May

  60% confidence

Data points we hold from this source