Dow expects about $1.5B Q4 EBITDA while targeting $1.3B of self-help benefits in 2027
View original at seekingalpha.com“CFO Tate said "third quarter free cash flow performance, $1.1 billion"”
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No logistics constraints from U.S. Gulf Coast; operating rates above 90%
60% confidenceNet sales up 13% YoY with growth in every operating segment; operating EBITDA more than $1.5B
60% confidenceQ3 sequential self-help improvement exceeded $150M; committed to ~$1.3B net benefits this year and $1.3B in 2027
60% confidenceAchieving $0.07 in October and $0.05 in November PE price increases would provide ~$200M upside
60% confidence~70% of ~4,500 role reductions implemented; substantial completion by year-end
60% confidenceSARD down $130M sequentially and cost savings expected to build in SARD and COGS
60% confidenceQ4 guide assumes ethane in mid- to high $0.20/gal; every $0.03/gal ethane equals ~$0.01/lb PE price
60% confidenceEthylene/PE operating rates in the low 80s; silicones a tale of two cities
60% confidencePersistently high energy costs challenge European economics; Rhine record low water disrupted logistics
60% confidence~$14B liquidity and no substantive debt maturities until 2029
60% confidenceQ4 seasonality largely offset by >$100M lower turnaround spending and ~$100M sequential self-help uplift
60% confidenceGlobal PE integrated margins expected to improve ~$0.02/lb vs Q3
60% confidenceQ3 free cash flow $1.1B; working capital sequential improvement ~$1.3B; 2027 cash conversion 70% to 80%
60% confidenceMDI markets remain soft; expects move back to a longer market in Q4
60% confidenceSadara financial boundary established; equity loss recognition suspended; funding commitment limited to ~$1.3B; engaged with Aramco
60% confidenceConstrained JVs limited volumes; P&SP excluding that grew 2%
60% confidencePath2Zero Alberta ~45% complete; first phase end of 2029, second phase 2030; open to partnering options
60% confidenceQ4 EBITDA expected at approximately $1.5B
60% confidenceTransform to Outperform ahead of schedule; on track for ~$700M growth and productivity improvements this year
60% confidenceWon't call a 2027 EBITDA number; $1.3B tailwinds = $1.2B Transform to Outperform + ~$100M asset actions
60% confidence
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