Nvidia earnings, SCOTUS tariff fallout, geopolitical tensions rise: What to watch this week

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• The market reaction to the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump-era tariffs was muted, suggesting it was largely priced in. Because IEEPA tariffs accounted for about 60% of those imposed, the decision's economic impact is limited.

  80% confidence

• Iran has 10 days to make a deal with the US

  80% confidence

• In a situation where US action remains small and targeted, prices would likely jump by roughly $10 per barrel before quickly coming back down to rebalance. If the US were to pursue a sustained military campaign, especially if it prompted serious retaliation by Iran such as strikes against oil infrastructure in the region, markets would likely see a sustained price increase of roughly $15 per barrel.

  80% confidence

• The White House would be immediately implementing a 10% global tariff over and above the normal tariffs already being charged under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974

  80% confidence

• We would fade a short-term bounce on the Supreme Court ruling because the Trump administration will quickly pivot to different legal grounds for replacement tariffs while deficits go higher in the interim. However, if lower tariffs help cool inflation, it could firm up expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year.

  80% confidence

• If markets begin to seriously price in a US strike on Iran within the next couple of weeks, the reaction will depend far more on the scale and consequences of the action than on the political narrative itself. Prolonged uncertainty alone can sustain a geopolitical risk premium.

  80% confidence

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