Lam projects more than $200B 2027 WFE as Aether revenue target rises to $2.5B by decade end
View original at seekingalpha.com“"The September quarter was also a record for our free cash flow, coming in at $3.24 billion," (Executive VP & CFO Douglas Bettinger)”
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December quarter guidance of $8.6B ±$400M revenue and EPS $2.33 ±$0.15.
60% confidenceLam delivered record revenue and profitability in the September quarter, with operating margin topping 40% for the first time.
60% confidenceEtch and deposition intensity rises as device architectures move to 3D, faster if DRAM leaps from 6F2 to 3D.
60% confidenceClean room space and component supply constraints will continue to limit chip makers' and equipment companies' ability to meet end demand in 2027.
60% confidenceThe revenue guide would have been higher absent near-term supply chain constraints.
60% confidenceAsked whether supply constraints imply a $300-400M headwind.
60% confidencePreliminary 2027 WFE outlook is more than $200B, with growth led by DRAM, then leading-edge foundry/logic and NAND.
60% confidenceDeclined to quantify unconstrained 2027 WFE demand but said it would be higher.
60% confidenceEach percentage point of NAND bits shifting to SLC class devices requires about 2% more installed wafer capacity.
60% confidenceCumulative Aether-related revenue is expected to reach about $2.5B by end of decade, ~$1B above prior expectations.
60% confidenceServices revenue to grow more than 30% in calendar 2026 and CSBG over 15% in calendar 2027.
60% confidenceShipments delayed by timing from December will ship in the March quarter.
60% confidenceCurrent supply constraints are nothing like COVID-era shortages.
60% confidenceOutgrowth versus WFE is driven by rising deposition and etch intensity across devices, advanced packaging and NAND tiering.
60% confidenceChina will be a significantly lower share of revenue in the December quarter, driven by domestic Chinese customers.
60% confidence2026 WFE expected in the mid-$150 billion range, up from low-$150B last quarter.
60% confidence