Beyond Secondaries: Turbine Wants To Unlock Liquidity For Venture LPs

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• Should SpaceX reach IPO in 2026, it will be 24 years old

  80% confidence

• Turbine's loans are relatively low LTV but high impact, as they empower borrowers to activate leverage in a previously illiquid arena

  80% confidence

• A typical Turbine borrower is a family office with tens of millions in wealth spread across multiple asset classes

  80% confidence

• Banks are built to lend against profitable, established businesses with cash flow to repay debt, not to properly value 15 to 20 pre-profitable companies from a venture portfolio

  80% confidence

• LP positions are likely to trade lower than single-company stock secondaries due to attached fee structures

  80% confidence

• If VC firms intend to continue raising new funds every three years, they need to provide their LPs with tools to bridge the liquidity gap

  80% confidence

• In the absence of earlier company exits, the market needs other solutions to bridge the gap, and credit has a clear role to play in empowering investors to recycle capital

  80% confidence

• The lack of significant returns from company exits means fewer dollars for LPs to recycle into new funds

  80% confidence

• Venture secondary sales started to require significant discounts around 2022 timeframe, making secondaries less appealing for investors who could hold

  80% confidence

• Companies have strong options available to stay private longer (if not forever), and the IPO hurdle is higher than ever before

  80% confidence

• Limited partners suffered from the denominator effect where their public market accounts and real estate shrank in value, causing venture investments to represent a higher percentage of wealth than intended

  80% confidence

• If a venture position is marked at 2.0x, the seller may be lucky to get their principal back in a secondary sale

  80% confidence

• Turbine's debt is incredibly attractive relative to other credit products that banks and insurance companies are buying, such as credit card bonds and used-car debt

  80% confidence

• Companies that went public in 2025 were a median age of 13 years old, up from a median age of 10 years in 2018

  80% confidence

• VCs are not against LPs seeking credit backed by their positions, but they are against gigantic legal bills and heavy diligence from lenders designed to see less value in early-stage companies

  80% confidence

• VCs were hesitant to call capital and were not actively investing at a time when valuations had reset after 2022

  80% confidence

• Founders with excellent products and progress were struggling to raise funds to finish the job after the 2022 reset

  80% confidence

• Single-company stock positions may clear at a 30%-60% discount to the company's last valuation in secondary sales, except for elite startups which command premiums

  80% confidence

Cité dans ces articles de Via News

• Private Companies Now Take 20+ Years to IPO as Credit Facilities Replace Exit Liquidity →
• Venture Capital LPs Face 30-60% Haircuts on Exits, Shift to Credit Solutions →
• Venture LPs Turn to Collateralized Loans as Secondary Markets Demand 60% Discounts Globally →